Is Light Water Reactor Technology Sustainable?
This paper proposes criteria for determining "intermediate sustainability" of an energy system over a 500-year horizon. We propose four criteria related to the maintenance of natural capital, technical capital, and social capital. We apply these criteria to Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and the LWR industry. We find that LWR technology does not violate intermediate sustainability criteria for the foreseeable future for environmental externalities or the social externalities associated with health and safety, including an accidental release of radioactivity. However, it does not meet criteria regarding the use of non-renewable uranium or social externalities associated with nuclear weapons proliferation. Also, current and future global demand for LWR technology appears to be below the minimum needed to sustain the economic viability of the global LWR industry. Because the dominant nuclear power technology (the LWR) is not "intermediate sustainable," we conclude that if the nuclear power industry is to be sustainable, it must develop new technologies.